Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
